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edreg104

High Water

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For all that boat on the St.Lawrence River, check out 
http://www.abay.com and watch the video, "how high is the water mamma". Unbelievable! Have been vacationing there for 30 yrs. and never experienced anything like this.

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We were watching a great special about the Chicago Lakefront & its' history last night.  it was made in 2008 and watching it in 2017 was interesting.  Back in 2008 - city planners were told by climate scientists that the great lakes would shrink by 3 feet in the next 20 years and city planners started to design lakefront features to "take advantage" of the add'l beach front.  My wife and I in 2008 were dreaming about having lakefront property and we toured many areas just looking.  The place i am fortunate to have currently was in 2008-2011 (inland lake connected to Lake Mich) about 2' lower and my pier is 130' long.  water started about 50' from shore.  the lake maintains the level of the big lake.  everyone started building permanent extentions onto the piers.  In 2013 - without warning, the winters were harsh and froze the lakes and ever since our lake has risen.  Today, the water is so high the property next to my house is a marsh and has a foot of water.  The waves splash 1/2 way up my shore barrier.

I am not denying that climates are changing but i have skepticism that the scientists are even close to being accurate at the impacts.  in 9 years they went from saying the Great Lakes were drying up and now they are at record highs.  

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Look at the cycles over the full time of level recording. I have.  The power dam & Canadian are a Major cause of present problems. So is Montreal city below river level.

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Food for thought.  Scientists can't accurately forecast the weather for more than a few hours.  So take their predictions with a grain of salt concerning decades or centuries.

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Exactly! Watch a ten day forecast, then keep track of how accurate it is. 

 

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On 6/24/2017 at 7:37 PM, edreg104 said:

Exactly! Watch a ten day forecast, then keep track of how accurate it is. 

 

Back many years when I was in graduate school, one of my professors was working with NOAA on modeling weather (a very complicated fluid dynamic problem in reality).  I believe the model at the time was a mathematically a series of coupled differential equations.  The model could be very accurate provided the input was accurate.  The problem, IIRC, was that further out you wanted the model to predict, the more accurate the inputs had to be.  So you had to have temperature and other factors to be accurate to like 6 decimal places to get a model to predict four days out.  Today's models may be more complicated, and solvable with the increased computer capacity compared to the early 90s, , but I would guess the inputs are just as critical to get long range accuracy.

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I"m sure it is extremely difficult to predict something as complicated as future weather. There are simply too many variables. I would rather have a more accurate short range forecast than a probably/maybe/could be longer one.

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On 6/24/2017 at 10:41 AM, Duane2135 said:

Food for thought.  Scientists can't accurately forecast the weather for more than a few hours.  So take their predictions with a grain of salt concerning decades or centuries.

Yuuup.

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